Technical Report : 06-April-2012  
 
  April_H4

Friday trading offers good trading opportunities - but there is the associated news related risk that goes with it.  PhiBase PRO trades as per the technical pattern formations, when Fib levels and indicators are in agreement. A brief technical analysis of EURUSD and what the PhiBase long term indicators internally show is explained below: 

The screen shot shows the pattern encompassing the EURUSD on the H4 timeframe. The blue line on top and orange line at the bottom show the wedge pattern controlling the EURUSD price action.


Prior to the currently open Long trades, PhiBase had made a short entry at reversal near the top of the wedge and booked a gain of 170 pips on most accounts.

The first long entry was made at 1.3138 based on the reversal and possible pattern leg formation (predictive logic).

Users who have upgraded to V2 would have an additional Long #2 at 1.3065 which was taken closer to the base of the wedge.

This trade setup has potential for gain based on the current price action - with the base of the wedge providing support and over sold conditions which can force a reversal on even mildly positive interpretation of news.

The hidden Stop Loss is placed below the base of the wedge at around 1.3010. A H1 close below 1.3010 may close out the position if the indicators do not support holding the long any longer.


Predicted Reaction to NFP Release

Scenario A:  If the data is better than expected and the previous month’s data is also revised upwards, the EUR/USD might fall 100 pips.

 

Scenario B:  If the data is worse than expected,  the EUR/USD pair might reverse from its over sold conditions and could swing 100 to 250 pips higher.

 

Scenario C:  If the data is mixed, we could expect that the EUR/USD pair would continue to trade within a range between 1.3020 and 1.3300.

 
Members who have upgraded to Version 2 prior to 4th April (Wednesday) would have USDCHF Long trades and GBPUSD long in place along with the Long EURUSD trade. The USDCHF trade is already in profit with trailing SL in place locking in part of the gains on all 4 positions.

In case of Scenario A : EURUSD may close below 1.3000. USDCHF will gain further and can more than make up for the loss made on EURUSD (and GBPUSD). This has a hedging effect.

In case of Scenario B : EURUSD will gain about 100 pips.  GBPUSD may also reach target level 1. USDCHF will close at Trailing SL. The over all trade setup will result in good gains.

In case of Scenario C : All the positions will continue to hold on over the weekend and will close based on the price action seen early next week.

Trade Advisory from PhiBase Team :

If you have Long USDCHF, Long EURUSD and Long GBPUSD : Allow EA to trade uninterrupted.

If you started the EA later than Wednesday and do not have the above hedging position : Consider the technical analysis in this report. The base of the wedge is expected to provide support to EURUSD, but given the over all bearishness on EURUSD the pair may move below triggering the hidden SL.



 
 
 
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